MADD BESS — Sensitivity Analysis

Impact of each implementation decision on RED | 17 scenarios tested
Base RED: 139,336 tCO₂ | TGHGd: 149,187 | TGHGc: 9,851
Summary
139,336
Base RED (tCO₂)
Median VC imputation
135,944
Max |Δ RED| (tCO₂)
Most sensitive decision
7
Decisions > 5% impact
Material sensitivity
7
Decisions ≈ 0% impact
Robust to these choices
17
Total Scenarios
Including D-14 variants
Tornado Chart — All Decisions
RED Comparison — Top 8 Most Impactful
D-14 Deep Dive — VC Imputation Methods
Key finding: The VC imputation method (D-14) is the most sensitive decision in the entire MADD pipeline. The range spans from 3,392 tCO₂ (MIN) to 214,791 tCO₂ (E[min_h]), a 63× difference.
E[min_h] = mean of hourly minimum VC (excl. zeros) per technology — likely the MADD §5.9 Table 35 intent.

VC Distribution — Dispatchable Technologies (observed non-zero values)

MIN(>0) = MADD literal    MEDIAN(>0) = current implementation
TechnologyRecords% Imputed MIN(>0)P10P25 MEDIANMEANP75P90
H. Embalse 117,850 48% 0.0 45.6 59.8 76.7 99.3 103.7 129.5
Termo. CC 131,745 13% 63.4 167.0 184.4 209.4 220.3 263.4 329.4
Termo. TV 307,405 43% 41.9 54.4 59.2 65.6 77.1 75.5 139.5
Termo. TG 342,537 10% 180.0 240.2 270.0 299.8 313.6 347.5 424.7
MCI 1,192,280 72% 15.0 219.8 240.9 269.8 277.5 332.7 362.9
All Scenarios — Click to Expand
RED increases (anti-conservative)    RED decreases (conservative)    Click any row for details, affected units, and TGHGd/TGHGc decomposition.
IDDecisionScenarioCategory Δ RED [tCO₂]Δ RED [%]Units
S07a D-14 VC imputation: MIN per tech Variable Cost -135,943.7 -97.57% 1138
S07c D-14 VC imputation: E[min_h] per tech Variable Cost +75,455.0 +54.15% 1138
S15 D-06 Embalse → non-dispatchable (DPP=0) DPP Classification +72,368.0 +51.94% 31
S12 D-30 Missing CR = 80% (instead of 100%) Capacity +63,203.7 +45.36%
S11 D-27 MAXC = P95(UGEN) instead of MAX Capacity +57,239.0 +41.08% 248
S07b D-14 VC imputation: MEAN per tech Variable Cost +37,297.5 +26.77% 1138
S06 D-13 Keep thermal VC=0 (no reclassification) Variable Cost -28,793.0 -20.66% 9
S09 D-20 Include DPP=0 units in DORd Merit Order -5,966.1 -4.28% 890
S05 D-12 Cogen VC=0 → imputed (remove exemption) Variable Cost +3,995.4 +2.87% 3
S10 D-24/25 Anti-conservative tie-break Merit Order +2,278.9 +1.64% 1138
S01 D-06 Geotérmica → dispatchable (DPP=1) DPP Classification +0.0 +0.00% 3
S02 D-08 Unknown tech fallback → Fotovoltaica Technology Inference +0.0 +0.00% 4
S03 D-10 No VC outlier cap (keep VC > 500) Variable Cost +0.0 +0.00% 2
S04 D-11 Keep negative VC Variable Cost +0.0 +0.00% 2
S08 D-16 Disp. EF null → 0 (instead of tech median) Emission Factor +0.0 +0.00% 4
S13 D-36 No AVE clip (allow negative AVE) Capacity +0.0 +0.00%
S14 DQ-01/02 Keep original renewable EF (non-zero) Emission Factor +0.0 +0.00% 1